Highest temperature in Beijing on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 17 August 2026, Beijing's highest temperature will be recorded at Capital International Airport Station and measured against defined Celsius ranges. The Polymarket contract currently prices this outcome at 0% YES, reflecting either extreme confidence in a particular temperature band or minimal trading activity establishing a floor. Settlement hinges on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, a distinction that matters when intraday peaks diverge from reported highs—traders should verify this source directly before committing USDC to conditional tokens on Polygon.

Beijing's August temperatures have historically clustered between 25–35°C, with extremes occasionally breaching 38°C during heat waves. The city's 2023 summer saw multiple days exceeding 35°C in mid-August, whilst 2022 remained cooler at similar dates. These precedents suggest the market's current 0% probability reflects either a specific range being heavily favoured by early traders or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Historical volatility in late-summer Beijing weather—driven by monsoon patterns and occasional typhoon systems—means temperature forecasts remain uncertain even weeks ahead.

Traders monitoring this contract should track China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, which typically offer 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy. Typhoon activity in the Western Pacific during mid-August could substantially alter Beijing's weather patterns, potentially driving temperatures downward if systems bring cloud cover and precipitation. Real-time settlement depends entirely on Weather Underground's recorded data at the airport station, making direct verification of that source essential before the 12:00 UTC resolution window closes on 17 August.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.