Highest temperature in Beijing on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 10 July 2026, Beijing faces its peak summer heat, with the Beijing Capital International Airport Station expected to record a daily high that could reach or exceed 37°C. This real-world event drives the current Polymarket price of 79% YES for the contract, reflecting strong on-chain confidence in a high-temperature outcome. Traders using USDC on the Polygon network are betting on conditional tokens that resolve based on Wunderground’s official hourly data, where the highest temperature recorded at any time on this day determines the settlement.

Historical climate data frames this probability: July 10 has seen a record high of 37°C in 1959, while recent years show July as Beijing’s hottest month, with 2023 reaching 40°C and 1999 hitting an all-time peak of 41.9°C[1][2][4]. Daily highs in July typically average 31°C (88°F), rarely falling below 26°C or exceeding 36°C, though extreme heat waves have pushed temperatures higher[3]. The 79% YES price aligns with the likelihood of a day near or above the 1959 record, given the current heat trend across northern China.

Traders should monitor the China Meteorological Administration’s daily heatwave alerts and the Beijing Municipal Emergency Response Office’s outdoor activity advisories, which have recently urged limits on time outdoors due to record temperatures[2]. The settlement depends entirely on Wunderground’s 12:00 UTC data release, so any delay in reporting or sensor recalibration could affect resolution. Reuters confirmed China recorded its hottest month in recent history in July 2024, with national averages surpassing 23.21°C, suggesting a continued upward trend in summer heat[9]. Watch for updates on the national heatwave index, as it directly influences the likelihood of exceeding 37°C.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Beijing on July 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.