Highest temperature in Beijing on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s highest temperature on 11 July 2026 is the real-world event determining settlement, with the market currently pricing a 7% chance that the peak stays at or below 27°C. On Polymarket, traders use USDC on Polygon to buy conditional tokens representing temperature ranges; the frontrunner is 30°C at 25%, followed by 29°C at 21%, suggesting the crowd expects a hot day well above the 27°C threshold [1].

Historically, Beijing’s July highs cluster around 30–36°C, with 32°C and 33°C being common outcomes, and extreme spikes reaching 40°C in 2023 and during past heatwaves [2][10]. The 7% probability for ≤27°C appears thin given daily highs rarely fall below 28°F (78°F) in July, with averages near 88°F (31°C) and peaks often exceeding 96°F (36°C) [3]. This aligns with records showing daily maximums exceeding 30°C from mid-May through July, and historical highs above 40°C in 1759–60 [5].

Traders should monitor the Beijing Meteorological Bureau’s daily forecasts and the China Meteorological Administration’s heatwave alerts, as recent data shows China recorded its hottest July month in recent history with sustained 40°C+ days from 11 July onward [8][9]. The settlement depends entirely on Wunderground’s recorded peak for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station (ZBAA), so any official heatwave announcements or shifts in humidity forecasts before 12:00 UTC on 11 July will be the key catalysts [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on July 11? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.