Highest temperature in Beijing on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s highest temperature on 13 July 2026 is the real-world event this contract tracks, with settlement tied to the peak reading at Beijing Capital International Airport Station. On Polymarket, the market currently prices the YES outcome at 0%, implying the crowd believes no temperature will fall within the undefined winning range—though the frontrunner outcome is actually 34°C at 42% probability, with 33°C next at 31% [1]. This apparent contradiction suggests the 0% YES figure may reflect a specific binary framing or a misalignment between the user’s view and the multi-outcome structure.

Historical July climatology in Beijing shows average highs near 31–32°C, but recent years have seen elevated humidity and scattered thunderstorms pushing peaks higher [1]. In 2023, Beijing recorded a July high of 40°C, and the city’s all-time record stands at 41.9°C from 1999, with some sources citing 42.1°C on 5 July 2010 [2][8][9]. These extremes frame why traders should not dismiss 34°C or 33°C as unlikely, despite the 0% YES price.

Traders should monitor daily weather forecasts from Wunderground and national meteorological updates, as heatwaves and humidity spikes are the primary catalysts for temperature surges [1]. Reuters reported in June 2023 that Beijing braced for blistering heatwaves, with temperatures soaring above 41°C, underscoring how quickly conditions can shift [3]. Since settlement depends on Wunderground’s official daily record for ZBAA, any discrepancy between model forecasts and observed data will directly impact resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.