Highest temperature in Beijing on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 14 July 2026, Beijing's highest temperature will be recorded at Capital International Airport Station and settled against Wunderground's historical data. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% probability, reflecting the settlement window's closure on the same day—traders cannot adjust positions once the actual reading is locked in. This creates a snapshot contract where the conditional token structure on Polygon resolves to whichever bracket captures the true maximum, with USDC payouts distributed accordingly amongst holders of the winning range.

Beijing's July temperatures cluster reliably between 26°C and 34°C based on thirty-year normals, though extremes occasionally breach 35°C during heat waves. The city experienced a peak of 41.9°C in June 2022 and regularly sees mid-July highs in the low-to-mid 30s. Historical volatility suggests the market's flat probability distribution underestimates the likelihood of moderate-to-warm outcomes (29–33°C range), which dominate typical mid-summer conditions at the airport station.

Traders should monitor China's meteorological forecasts released by the China Meteorological Administration in early July, which typically provide ten-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for temperature extremes. Any anomalous atmospheric patterns—such as early monsoon activity or persistent high-pressure systems—would shift expectations materially. The airport station's location in Chaoyang District means urban heat island effects can elevate readings relative to surrounding areas, a factor worth cross-referencing against broader Beijing municipal temperature reports when assessing range probabilities before settlement.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.