Highest temperature in Beijing on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 25 July 2026, Beijing's highest temperature will be recorded at Capital International Airport Station and settled against Wunderground's historical data. The current market pricing reflects near-zero conviction that the temperature will fall into the upper ranges being traded, with conditional tokens on Polygon trading at minimal USDC valuations across the warmer brackets. This disconnect between the contract's structure and crowd positioning suggests either confidence in moderate conditions or sparse liquidity in the upper tiers.

Beijing's July temperatures cluster consistently between 26–34°C, with historical extremes occasionally breaching 35°C during heat waves. The 2010 heat wave saw the city reach 40.6°C in mid-July, whilst more typical recent summers have peaked in the 32–33°C range. The 0% probability assigned to higher ranges may reflect baseline expectations for a relatively normal summer rather than genuine forecasting precision, particularly given that July remains Beijing's hottest month and conditions can shift rapidly with atmospheric patterns.

Traders monitoring this contract should track China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early July 2026, which typically provide 10–14 day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for temperature extremes. Broader Asian monsoon activity and any Tibetan high-pressure systems developing in late July will influence whether the city experiences typical summer heat or anomalous conditions. Real-time settlement depends entirely on Wunderground's recorded data from the airport station, making source verification critical at resolution time.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.