Highest temperature in Beijing on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 28 July 2026, Beijing's highest temperature will be recorded at Capital International Airport Station and resolved against Wunderground's historical data archive. The current market pricing reflects zero probability across all temperature bands, a technical artefact of initial liquidity conditions rather than a genuine forecast that temperatures will fail to register. Traders are pricing conditional tokens on USDC via Polygon, with settlement contingent on Wunderground's official daily maximum for that specific station and date.

Beijing's July climate is consistently hot and humid, with historical July averages around 26–29°C and daily highs typically ranging from 30–35°C. The city experienced a 41.1°C peak in June 2022 and regularly sees temperatures above 35°C during mid-summer. The 0% crowd probability suggests the market has not yet attracted substantive trading activity rather than reflecting genuine uncertainty about whether measurable heat will occur on that date.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in the weeks preceding late July 2026, as seasonal patterns and any anomalous weather systems will shape temperature expectations. Historical precedent indicates Beijing rarely experiences July days below 25°C, making extreme cold scenarios implausible. The resolution mechanism depends entirely on Wunderground's archival data for ZBAA station; traders should verify the platform's data availability and historical accuracy for Beijing before committing capital to conditional token positions.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.