Highest temperature in Beijing on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 6 July 2026, the Beijing Capital International Airport Station will record its peak temperature in degrees Celsius, a real-world metric that determines the outcome of this prediction market. Today, Polymarket prices the contract for a temperature above 30°C at 0% YES, implying the crowd believes the day will be unusually cool or that the resolution threshold is set far beyond typical July highs. This stark pricing contrasts sharply with historical patterns, where Beijing’s July temperatures routinely exceed 30°C, often reaching 40°C or higher.

Historical data frames this 0% probability as an outlier. In 2023, Beijing hit 40.1°C on 6 July at the southern suburb observatory, a station representing the city’s temperature[1]. Weather Spark notes that daily highs in July average 88°F (31.1°C), rarely falling below 78°F (25.6°C)[2]. China recorded its highest number of hot days in six decades in 2023, with 4.1 days exceeding 35°C on average[3]. The all-time record for Beijing is 41.9°C, set on 24 July 1999[8]. These figures suggest the current 0% pricing ignores climatology unless an extreme anomaly is forecast.

Traders should monitor official weather bulletins from the China Meteorological Administration and Wunderground’s live updates for the airport station, as these are the definitive resolution sources. Recent news confirms China’s July 2023 was its hottest month since records began, with average temperatures exceeding previous peaks[7]. No major cooling announcements have been issued for early July 2026, and the on-chain mechanics—USDC settlements on Polygon via conditional tokens—will execute automatically once Wunderground publishes the day’s peak. The absence of cooling catalysts reinforces the likelihood that the 0% price is misaligned with seasonal norms.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.