Highest temperature in Beijing on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded on 9 July 2026 at Beijing Capital International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical data frames the current 0% YES probability as a stark outlier, since July is consistently Beijing’s hottest month. Long-term averages show daytime highs typically ranging from 25°C to 33°C, with maximums often reaching 38°C or higher, and some years seeing temperatures climb to 40°C amid frequent thunderstorms [1][4]. Even conservative climate models cite a July maximum of 32.2°C, making a scenario where the temperature fails to exceed any defined range statistically implausible [2].

Traders should monitor the immediate forecast for catastrophic storms, as China’s National Climate Center expects up to six typhoons to form in the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea this July, more than the seasonal average [5]. While typhoons can bring cooling rain, recent reports indicate an unprecedented heat wave is already sweeping large parts of China, with temperatures exceeding 35°C and shattering past records [9]. The resolution depends entirely on Wunderground’s official hourly record for the airport station, so any sudden shift in on-chain liquidity or conditional token pricing on Polygon (settled in USDC) will reflect real-time adjustments to these volatile weather dependencies.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on July 9? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.