Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on July 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 18 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Minister Pistarini International Airport in Buenos Aires will fall into one of several defined ranges. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature brackets, suggesting either sparse liquidity or genuine uncertainty about which range will resolve. Traders are pricing conditional tokens on Polygon, settling in USDC, with resolution tied directly to Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific station and date.

Buenos Aires experiences mid-winter conditions in July, with mean highs around 13–15°C and occasional cold snaps pushing temperatures below 5°C. Historical precedent matters here: July 2023 saw a maximum of 18.2°C at the same airport, whilst July 2022 peaked at 16.1°C. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects the market's early stage rather than genuine consensus that no temperature will be recorded; more probable is that traders haven't yet committed capital to any single range, leaving the book unpriced. Winter variability in Buenos Aires can be substantial—cold fronts from the south occasionally suppress highs into single digits, whilst rare warm spells push into the low 20s.

The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 18 July 2026, giving traders a narrow window to observe actual conditions before resolution. Weather forecasts for that date will become actionable only in the days immediately preceding; longer-range models carry substantial uncertainty for winter conditions in the Southern Hemisphere. Traders should monitor Argentine meteorological service (Servicio Meteorológico Nacional) forecasts and any unusual atmospheric patterns developing in early July, as the South Atlantic Oscillation and Antarctic weather systems can drive significant temperature swings across the region.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on July 18? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.