Highest temperature in Busan on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the Busan heat contract at **0% YES** today, so the market is effectively assigning no weight to a highest temperature in the relevant range being recorded at Gimhae Intl Airport before settlement. The outcome will be settled in USDC on Polygon through the conditional-tokens framework, using the Wunderground history page for Gimhae Intl Airport Station as the source of the day’s maximum temperature.

That near-zero price sits against Busan’s normal August heat profile, which is already warm enough to keep the upper tail in play. Climatology for Busan points to average August highs around 84–87°F (29–31°C), with muggy conditions and frequent rain, while some reference pages note that coastal Busan can exceed 90°F in hotter spells.[4][5][14] Historical Busan data also show that August has produced far higher extremes than the averages imply, including a reported city record of 38.8°C in late July 2026 and August highs in the high-30s Celsius in earlier years.[17][19]

For traders, the main catalysts are the day’s actual forecast trend, any late-morning surge in solar heating, and whether showers or marine air suppress the airport reading before the settlement cutoff at 12:00 UTC. Local forecast services were already pointing to August highs in the low-to-upper 30s Celsius around this period, which is the range that would matter for the market’s temperature buckets.[2][8] In practice, Polymarket users watching this contract will care less about citywide headlines than about whether the airport station posts a peak above the bracket lines before Wunderground’s daily history finalises.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.