Highest temperature in Busan on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 17 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Gimhae International Airport Station in Busan will be measured and compared against predefined ranges. The market currently prices all outcomes at 0% YES, reflecting either extreme illiquidity or a technical settlement state rather than genuine uncertainty about August weather in South Korea's second-largest city. Resolution hinges on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—the granular hourly dataset—rather than the summary high-low figures, a distinction that occasionally produces material differences when temperature spikes occur outside standard reporting windows.

Busan's August climate presents a constrained forecasting problem. The city experiences consistent summer heat with daily highs typically between 28–32°C, though extreme heat events have pushed readings above 35°C during particularly intense heat waves. Historical August data from Gimhae station shows the range of variability traders should expect: whilst most years cluster around 30–33°C highs, the 2018 heat wave and similar events demonstrate that outlier outcomes above 35°C occur roughly once per decade. Current zero pricing suggests the market may be awaiting liquidity injection or reflects settlement mechanics that haven't yet activated meaningful trading.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Korean Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, particularly any alerts for heat waves or typhoon activity that could suppress temperatures. The timing of Gimhae's observations—airport weather stations record continuously—means afternoon peak temperatures typically occur between 14:00 and 16:00 local time. Any significant weather system affecting the Korean peninsula in mid-August could shift outcomes materially, making near-term seasonal forecasts the primary catalyst for position changes once the market gains active participation.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Busan on August 17? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.