Highest temperature in Busan on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

Busan's weather on 18 August 2026 will be measured at Gimhae International Airport Station, with the highest temperature recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table determining settlement. The current market pricing reflects zero probability for any outcome, a technical artefact of how conditional tokens initialise on Polygon before meaningful trading activity establishes price discovery. USDC settlement will occur against whichever temperature band captures the recorded high, with resolution tied explicitly to the Daily Observations dataset rather than summary figures.

August in Busan typically sees sustained heat, with historical highs clustering between 28–32°C during mid-month. The Korea Meteorological Administration's records from 2015–2024 show that extreme outliers above 35°C occur roughly once per decade in this window, whilst temperatures below 26°C are rare. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are awaiting baseline forecasts or treating the market as illiquid pending initial price formation. Comparable Korean summer markets have shown that coastal cities like Busan experience moderating effects from the Korea Strait, keeping peaks lower than inland Seoul or Daegu.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration's extended forecasts issued in late July and early August, particularly any alerts regarding heat waves or typhoon activity that could suppress temperatures. Tropical storm systems occasionally track near the peninsula in mid-August, introducing volatility to temperature predictions. Real-time Weather Underground data feeds will be critical for settlement verification, and traders should verify the specific station's historical calibration, as instrument changes or relocation can affect baseline comparability.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Busan on August 18? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.