Highest temperature in Busan on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket currently prices this contract at 0%, meaning traders see negligible probability that Busan's highest temperature on 28 July 2026 will fall into whichever range this particular outcome represents. The settlement hinges on data from Gimhae International Airport's weather station, the official measurement point for the city, with resolution sourced directly from Weather Underground's historical records. Traders holding conditional tokens on this outcome face a binary proposition: either the day's peak temperature matches this range or it does not, with USDC settlement on Polygon following within hours of the 12:00 UTC window close.

July temperatures in Busan historically cluster between 28–32°C, with extreme highs occasionally reaching 34–35°C during particularly intense heat waves. The city's coastal location moderates summer peaks compared to inland Korean regions, though the monsoon season (June–July) can create humid conditions that push readings higher. Recent years show 2018 and 2023 recorded notably elevated July maxima, providing reference points for how often truly exceptional heat materialises in this window.

The Korean Meteorological Administration typically releases seasonal forecasts in early summer, with updates through June providing traders visibility on expected atmospheric patterns for late July. El Niño or La Niña conditions influence broader East Asian weather systems, whilst the strength of the Pacific high-pressure system directly determines whether Busan experiences typical summer heat or anomalous extremes. Traders should monitor KMA advisories and regional heat-wave warnings issued in the weeks preceding settlement.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.