Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract at **0% YES**, which means the market is effectively pricing in no chance that Chengdu’s airport station posts a top-end reading in the contract’s relevant temperature band by the settlement cutoff. On Polymarket, traders buy and sell USDC-backed conditional tokens on Polygon, so the current price is the crowd’s live view of where the highest observed temperature at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport will land on 1 August 2026.

For context, Chengdu’s August climate is hot, humid and rain-prone, but not uniformly extreme: average highs cluster around the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius, while historical August maxima have reached the mid-to-upper 30s on some days. WeatherSpark shows 1 August is typically among the warmest days of the year in Chengdu, with an average high near 87°F, while other climate summaries put typical August highs around 29.8°C to 30°C and note occasional spikes above 36°C. That matters for this market because a 0% reading is only consistent if traders think the airport’s actual observation will stay below the target range, despite the month’s normal heat profile.[1][2][3][4]

What moves this market is the day-of-weather set-up rather than policy or earnings-style catalysts. Traders should watch the forecast for convection, cloud cover and rainfall around Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport, because afternoon showers or persistent overcast can cap the daily high even in a hot spell; the Wunderground history page for Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport is the settlement source, and the contract resolves to the day’s highest reading there, not the citywide average.[17][18] From a trading mechanics perspective, the only real dependency is the final printed airport temperature within the settlement window, so late-morning and early-afternoon forecast shifts around 12:00 UTC are the most relevant inputs.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.