Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu will record its highest temperature on 11 August 2026 at Shuangliu International Airport Station, measured in the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than the Day High & Low summary. The market currently prices this outcome at 0% across all temperature ranges, indicating traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating the contract as a placeholder until nearer the settlement date. USDC liquidity on Polygon will determine how efficiently positions can be entered or exited as August approaches.

Chengdu's August temperatures typically peak between 33–37°C, with historical data from 2015–2023 showing the 11th falling within the city's hottest fortnight. The 2022 heatwave pushed daily highs to 40°C across Sichuan Province, though Chengdu proper remained slightly cooler. Current zero probability across all ranges suggests the market has not yet attracted meaningful volume, a common pattern for weather contracts more than eighteen months ahead of settlement.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration seasonal forecasts, typically released in June and July, which will provide the first substantive signal for August 2026 conditions. La Niña or El Niño patterns developing through 2025–2026 will influence broader East Asian summer temperatures. The specific resolution dependency on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—rather than alternative sources—creates a technical constraint; traders should verify the station's historical data availability and any planned maintenance windows before committing capital.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 11? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.