Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this contract at **0% YES** today, so the market is effectively saying the chance of the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station posting the top August 2 reading in the chosen range is being treated as negligible. The contract settles in **USDC on Polygon** through conditional tokens, and the key practical point is that it resolves off the day’s **highest** temperature on Wunderground’s station history page, not off a forecast or citywide average.

The historical frame is straightforward: Chengdu’s August weather is usually hot and humid, but not uniformly extreme. Normal August highs are around the mid-20s to low-30s Celsius, with several travel-weather guides putting typical highs near **30–31°C** and noting that hotter spells can push into the high 30s; one August guide also lists a historical record high of **39°C** for the city. [2][7][8] That makes the market’s zero price easier to read as a view that the specific airport station on this date is more likely to land in a middling band than to produce an outsized peak.

For traders, the main catalysts are the same factors that move any daily temperature market: morning sunshine, afternoon convective rain, and whether regional cloud cover suppresses the daytime maximum. Chengdu is in its rainy, humid summer period, so cloud and rain can cap the high even when the broader seasonal backdrop is warm. [2][13] Because settlement depends on the Wunderground station record for **all times on the day**, the live intraday path matters more than the overnight low or the forecast headline, and the final print will be the last authoritative input that determines the winning temperature range.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 2? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.