Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the 4 August Chengdu temperature contract through USDC on Polygon, with conditional tokens settling against the Wunderground reading from Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport; the current crowd has the **34°C** band as the market leader at 41%, while the broader temperature ladder still leaves meaningful weight across the low-to-mid 30s. The 0% YES indication in the prompt is not consistent with the live contract pricing shown on the market page, so the usable reference for traders is the distribution across the listed outcomes rather than a binary read.[14]

For context, Chengdu in August is normally a hot, humid, rain-prone market, with long-run guides clustering daytime highs around **30–32°C** and some forecasts for 4 August already pointing to a peak near **32–34°C** with scattered showers.[2][5][7] That backdrop helps explain why the book is concentrated in the low 30s rather than on extreme heat outcomes: if cloud cover or convective rain arrives early, the day’s maximum can be capped before the upper-30s become plausible, while clear spells and urban heat can still push the airport station into the mid-30s.[1][13]

The main trader watchpoints are the afternoon forecast trend, thunderstorm timing, and whether airport observations diverge from city-centre forecasts, because the market resolves to the station’s highest reported temperature, not the city average.[14][15] In practical terms, Polymarket positions can move quickly as new model runs, rain timing, or late-day sunshine shift the expected daily maximum; the final print matters most, since revisions are accepted until the first datapoint for the following date is published.[14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.