Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the **highest temperature at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport** on 6 August at **0% YES**, so the contract is effectively being treated as if none of the listed Celsius ranges will clear. The market resolves from the day’s peak reading in Wunderground history for the airport station, with payout determined through Polymarket’s usual USDC-settled, Polygon-based conditional tokens structure once the range is fixed by the source data.

That pricing sits against a fairly familiar Chengdu August pattern: the city is typically hot, humid and rain-prone rather than extreme by inland China standards. Long-run guides put August daytime highs around **30°C** and note frequent rain, while several forecast pages place early-August maxima in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, which means a single hot afternoon can still produce a materially higher station peak than the daily average suggests.[1][4][6][20] For traders, the key comparison is not whether Chengdu is warm, but whether the airport station reaches the upper buckets on a specific afternoon; a 0% price implies the crowd sees those bins as outside the realistic range.

The main catalysts are the same ones that matter for any weather range market: the morning forecast, any afternoon convection, and whether rain suppresses the day’s top reading before it is locked in at the station. Chengdu’s August climatology supports both heat and showers, and official city forecasts for 6 August have shown **Chengdu 21–35°C with rain** or similar ranges, which is consistent with a high-variance day where the maximum can still land well above 30°C if sunshine breaks through.[9] On Polymarket, that means the contract price should ultimately track the station’s actual peak, not the broader city forecast, so the most relevant dependency is how the airport observations evolve through local afternoon heating and storm timing.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.