Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s July heat is notorious, with temperatures routinely climbing above 30°C and occasionally hitting 38°C during peak summer days [4][6]. On Polymarket, the contract for “Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 11?” is priced at 0% YES in USDC on Polygon, implying the crowd believes the temperature will fall outside the defined range. This near-zero probability contrasts sharply with historical patterns: July is Chengdu’s hottest month, averaging highs of 31–32°C, with several days exceeding 35°C in recent years [2][5]. Comparable cases from 2023–2025 show July 11 temperatures consistently in the 33–37°C band at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport, making the current pricing appear detached from climatic reality [1][10].

Traders should monitor real-time Wunderground data for the Chengdu Shuangliu station, as settlement hinges exclusively on its recorded peak for 11 July 2026 [9]. The key catalyst is the hourly temperature feed updating throughout the day; any sudden spike above 35°C could invalidate the 0% pricing if the market range includes that threshold. Additionally, regional weather announcements from Sichuan’s meteorological bureau may signal extreme heat events, though no official forecast has been issued for this specific date as of 8 AM UTC [3]. Since the market resolves on-chain using conditional tokens, liquidity and slippage on Polygon will determine entry efficiency once the temperature trend becomes clear.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

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Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.