Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu is already experiencing its peak summer heat today, with July consistently delivering the city’s hottest conditions and afternoon highs frequently reaching 33°C or higher. The market for the highest temperature on 13 July 2026 at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport currently prices the YES outcome at 0%, implying the crowd expects the temperature to fall outside the specific range offered, despite historical data showing July days often hit 37–38°C.

Historical records frame this near-zero probability as a potential mispricing rather than a certainty of cool weather. July and August are the hottest months in Chengdu, with average highs of 28–30°C and frequent spikes to 38°C, while the city’s absolute recorded extreme reached 39.4°C [2][6]. A comparable market resolved correctly on 6 July 2026 when Chengdu hit 37°C, confirming that mid-July temperatures routinely breach the upper thresholds traders might dismiss [9]. The 0% price ignores this pattern, suggesting the crowd may be underestimating the likelihood of a heat spike before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC.

Traders should monitor real-time readings from Wunderground for the Shuangliu station, the designated resolution source, as the day’s peak temperature is still unfolding [7]. China recently experienced its hottest July on record since 1961, a macro-climate catalyst that increases the probability of extreme daily highs in Sichuan [4]. With USDC settlements on Polygon using conditional tokens, the on-chain mechanics allow immediate position adjustments if the live temperature approaches the range boundary, making the remaining two hours before settlement critical for reassessing the 0% implied probability.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.