Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu is expected to hit its peak heat for 17 July 2026 at the Shuangliu International Airport Station, with the market pricing an 83% chance the temperature lands in the implied YES range. On Polymarket, traders are locking in USDC on the Polygon network using conditional tokens to bet on this specific Celsius threshold before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC.

Historically, mid-July in Chengdu sees frequent highs above 35°C, with 2022 and 2023 both recording peaks near 38°C at Shuangliu during similar heatwaves. The current 83% probability aligns with these precedents, suggesting the market views a scorching day as the baseline rather than an outlier, though a sudden shift in monsoon patterns could disrupt this trend.

Traders should monitor the China Meteorological Administration’s 72-hour forecast updates and any sudden cloud-cover announcements from Sichuan provincial weather services, as these directly influence peak temperature outcomes. A recent report from the Global Times noted that Sichuan is entering a prolonged high-pressure phase this week, increasing the likelihood of sustained heat without significant rainfall to cool the air [1]. Watch for real-time Wunderground data feeds as the day progresses, since the market resolves strictly on the station’s recorded maximum.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 17? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.