Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s 23 July maximum is traded today at **0% YES**, so the contract is implying no market expectation of a qualifying heat spike in the settlement window. On Polymarket, that means the USDC-backed position is being priced through conditional tokens on Polygon around a very specific airport-station reading, not a citywide forecast, with the outcome determined by the highest temperature logged at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on the day.

For context, Chengdu in July is usually hot and humid rather than extreme by inland China standards, but the airport station can still print materially different highs depending on cloud cover, rain timing and the strength of the subtropical monsoon pattern. A 0% print is therefore best read as either a thin book, an inactive market, or a strong belief that the day’s maximum will stay outside the contract’s target range rather than a view that temperatures will be cool overall. Historical daily climate references for Chengdu in July show a typical seasonal peak that is often warm enough to keep the upper bands in play if sunshine arrives early, but the exact settlement point is the single highest reading at the airport station, not the average daytime temperature.[1]

The main catalysts for traders are the local forecast path through the morning and early afternoon in Chengdu, especially cloud breaks, convective showers and any change in rain timing that could cap the high before the settlement cut-off. A close watch on airport-specific weather updates matters more than general city forecasts, because a brief sunny interval can lift the daily maximum even when conditions deteriorate later. In practice, the position will turn on whether the station can climb into the relevant Celsius range before Wunderground’s daily history page locks in the day’s peak reading.[1]

Sources: 1

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 23? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.