Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is currently pricing this Chengdu airport temperature contract at **0% YES**, which means the market is assigning no crowd-implied chance that the day’s highest reading will land in the target range. On Polymarket, buyers are trading USDC on Polygon against conditional tokens that settle from the Wunderground daily high at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport, so the relevant question is not simply whether Chengdu is hot, but whether the airport station’s maximum for the day falls inside the contract’s settlement band.[1][2]

That 0% reading sits against a weather backdrop that is already warm to hot. Near-term forecasts for Chengdu show daytime highs around **36°C** to **38°C**, with BBC Weather listing **24°C** currently and humidity around **74%**, while weather services also flag rain chances and a generally unsettled summer pattern.[1][2][3][4] For a temperature market, the key point is that the settlement source is a specific station and a single daily maximum, so brief cloud cover, afternoon rain, or delayed heating can matter as much as the headline city forecast.[1]

A trader should watch the day’s synoptic setup, especially whether showers or thunderstorms build over Sichuan in the afternoon, because those are the main downside risk to a higher maximum. Chengdu’s July climate is also shaped by the East Asian summer monsoon and the local rainy season, which can suppress daytime peaks even when the broader forecast looks hot.[5] On a live Polymarket position, the practical dependency is the final Wunderground print from the airport station, not the city average or another provider’s forecast.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 24? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.