Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu will record its highest temperature on 25 July 2026 at Shuangliu International Airport Station, with settlement determined by Wunderground historical data. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% probability on Polygon, suggesting either a technical issue with the contract's conditional token structure or minimal liquidity across USDC-denominated outcome buckets. Traders entering this market will interact with standard Polymarket mechanics: depositing USDC, receiving conditional tokens for their chosen temperature range, and settling against the documented high for that specific calendar day.

Chengdu's July temperatures historically cluster between 32–36°C, with occasional peaks exceeding 37°C during heatwaves. The city's subtropical monsoon climate produces consistent summer heat, though extreme temperatures above 40°C remain rare at the airport station. Recent summers (2023–2024) saw July highs typically in the 34–35°C range, providing a baseline for assessing which outcome buckets carry realistic probability weight.

Traders should monitor China's meteorological forecasts released in early July 2026, particularly alerts from the China Meteorological Administration regarding Sichuan Province heat events. The East Asian summer monsoon pattern and any Tibetan high-pressure system positioning will materially affect whether Chengdu experiences typical seasonal heat or an anomalous spike. Real-time weather data from Wunderground becomes the sole authoritative source after 25 July, with the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC, allowing traders to observe actual recorded temperatures before final resolution.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 25? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.