Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 11 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station will fall within one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Celsius. The market currently prices all temperature outcomes at 0% YES, reflecting either incomplete liquidity or extreme confidence in a specific range that hasn't yet attracted trading volume. Resolution depends on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, a distinction that matters when intraday readings diverge from headline highs.

Chongqing's August climate presents a narrow historical band. The city experiences peak summer heat in early August, with daily highs typically between 32–36°C based on thirty-year records. The 2023 heatwave saw temperatures exceed 40°C for extended periods, though such extremes remain statistical outliers. August 11 specifically falls within the hottest fortnight of the year, when high-pressure systems dominate the Yangtze River valley. Traders should examine whether the 2026 forecast anticipates monsoon influence or sustained anticyclonic conditions, as either pattern meaningfully shifts the probability distribution across temperature bands.

China's meteorological authority publishes ten-day forecasts roughly one week before settlement, providing the primary catalyst for market repricing. Tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during late July or early August could introduce moisture and cloud cover, suppressing daytime highs. Conversely, a stable ridge of high pressure would favour temperatures in the 35–38°C range. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 11 August, requiring traders to monitor real-time airport observations as the day progresses, since Weather Underground updates its Daily Observations table throughout daylight hours.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 11? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.