Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Chongqing heat contract at **0% YES** today, so the market is effectively saying it sees no chance that the day’s high at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport lands in the YES range before the 12:00 UTC settlement cut-off. The contract resolves off the *highest temperature recorded for all times on 3 August 2026* at the airport station on Wunderground, so the practical question for users holding USDC on Polygon is not whether Chongqing is hot in general, but where the actual peak sits within the market’s defined bins.

For context, August is normally one of Chongqing’s hottest months, with typical highs around the mid-30s Celsius and humid conditions that support sharp afternoon spikes. Historical August data shows 3 August averaging a high of about 34.7°C, while broader climate references put Chongqing’s August daytime high near 34°C and a month-average range of roughly 33°C to 27°C. The city’s all-time extreme is much higher, with a recorded 43°C, but that is an outlier rather than the base case, which is why traders usually anchor on the daily forecast and not the annual record.

The main catalysts are straightforward: the airport’s observed maximum by late morning UTC, any early-day convective rain or cloud cover that caps heating, and the timing of the final update on the resolution source page. In a market settled from Wunderground readings, the live station trace matters more than citywide forecasts, because a brief midday burst can lift the peak into a higher band even if the rest of the day looks ordinary. Because settlement ends at 12:00 UTC, Polymarket users are effectively trading the daytime accumulation of the station’s reported high, not the full local calendar day.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 3? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.