Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market currently prices the Chongqing daytime high with **39°C** as the frontrunner at **42%**, while **38°C** sits next at **31%**; a **0%** crowd-implied chance for **YES** on the contract’s specific range outcome means traders are treating that band as effectively unreachable at current levels.[1] On Polymarket, positions are funded in **USDC** on **Polygon**, with the result settled through the market’s **conditional token** structure once the reference reading from Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station is finalised.[1]

For context, this is a late-July temperature call in a city that often sits in China’s summer heat belt, so traders usually frame it as a spread between adjacent bins rather than a binary pass/fail event. The current pricing suggests the crowd sees the most likely outcome as a peak in the upper 30s Celsius, with the market still assigning meaningful weight to a one-degree move in either direction, which is typical when the forecast is clustered tightly around a hot-weather ceiling.[1]

What matters for traders is not only the broad forecast, but also the exact daily maximum reported by Wunderground for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. Any last-minute shift in cloud cover, rainfall, or thunderstorm timing can move the station maximum across a bracket, and that is the only value that will matter for resolution.[1]

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.