Highest temperature in Dallas on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas on 12 July 2026 is forecast to hit highs between 96°F and 102°F, with the average July high at Dallas Love Field sitting at 96°F[3][5]. The crowd-implied probability of 0% for the YES outcome in this specific market is anomalous given the seasonal heat, as the frontrunner outcome on Polymarket is 98–99°F at 98% probability, suggesting the market expects temperatures well within the typical summer range rather than the extreme lows that would trigger a YES resolution[1]. Historical climatology confirms July is the hottest month, with 30-year normals showing a maximum of 96°F, making a deviation below the threshold required for YES highly improbable without a major cooling event[5][7].

Traders should monitor the daily high-temperature forecasts from AccuWeather and the real-time data feed from Wunderground, which serves as the official resolution source for this contract[3]. The on-chain mechanics on Polygon utilise USDC for settlement, where conditional tokens resolve based on the single highest temperature recorded at KDAL before the 2026-07-12T12:00:00Z cutoff[1]. No specific weather announcements are currently pending that would drastically alter the forecast, but the dependency on the Wunderground history page means any data latency or station-specific anomalies could impact the final resolution, though the 98% probability assigned to 98–99°F indicates strong market confidence in a standard hot July day[1][3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Dallas on July 12? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.