Highest temperature in Dallas on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 13 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Dallas Love Field Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are currently pricing this contract as effectively worthless, which typically occurs when settlement is imminent or when the underlying event has already resolved. Since the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, traders are likely positioning based on real-time temperature data already available from Wunderground's historical records for the Dallas Love Field Station.

Dallas summer temperatures in mid-July historically cluster in the 93–98°F range, with occasional spikes above 100°F during heat waves. The city's 30-year average high for 13 July sits near 95°F. The 0% valuation across all outcome ranges suggests the market may have already settled or that traders have consensus on which temperature band will resolve, leaving no perceived edge in any remaining open positions. Checking Wunderground's historical data for previous 13 July entries provides a baseline: the station has recorded highs ranging from 89°F to 101°F on this date across different years, establishing a wide but predictable distribution.

Traders monitoring this contract should track real-time temperature updates from Wunderground on the settlement date itself. The Dallas-Fort Worth region's afternoon heat peaks typically occur between 14:00 and 16:00 local time (19:00–21:00 UTC), though the official daily high is recorded across the full 24-hour period. Any unusual weather systems—rare July cold fronts or intense heat domes—would shift outcomes, but such events are typically flagged in National Weather Service forecasts days in advance.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Dallas on July 13? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.