Highest temperature in Dallas on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas will record its peak temperature for 15 July 2026 at the Dallas Love Field Station, with the market now pricing the outcome as a specific Fahrenheit range. On Polymarket, the contract trades on Polygon using USDC, where conditional tokens represent each temperature bracket. The crowd currently assigns a 0% probability to the YES outcome for any range above 91°F, while the frontrunner is "90–91°F" at 44%, followed by "88–89°F" at 30% [1]. This distribution reflects a tight consensus around high but not extreme summer heat for mid-July in North Texas.

Historical July highs at KDAL typically cluster between 88°F and 95°F, with 90–91°F appearing frequently in recent years. The 0% implied probability for higher ranges aligns with comparable cases where record-breaking heat above 96°F is rare in Dallas during this period, suggesting the market is correctly discounting outlier scenarios. Traders reading the current pricing should note that the 44% weight on 90–91°F mirrors the mode of past July 15 readings, reinforcing the view that the market is anchored to typical seasonal norms rather than speculative extremes.

Key catalysts include the National Weather Service’s 7-day forecast updates and any sudden shifts in regional humidity or wind patterns that could push temperatures higher. Traders should monitor the Wunderground daily history page for KDAL once the settlement window closes, as resolution depends solely on the highest recorded temperature for that day [1]. No official announcements are expected before 15 July, but real-time weather models from NOAA will be the primary dependency for adjusting positions as the date approaches.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.