Highest temperature in Dallas on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is currently pricing the Dallas 22 July heat contract as a near-certain **108–109°F** print, with the next nearest bucket at **95°F or below** sitting at **0%**. On Polymarket, traders are buying and selling USDC-settled conditional tokens on Polygon, so the quoted price reflects the market’s live view of which temperature band will match the Dallas Love Field Station’s highest reading, not a forecast of the broader city or metro area.

The current **100%** implied probability for 108–109°F is best read against how Dallas behaves in late July: peak afternoon heat in North Texas often clusters in the upper 90s to low 100s, but a strong ridge and dry air can push the day’s maximum into the higher bands that this contract uses. Because the market resolves off Wunderground’s Dallas Love Field history page, the key comparison is not a generic airport forecast but the single highest observed reading for that station on the day, which makes the exact afternoon spike more important than the daily average.

For traders, the main catalysts are the local forecast path into the afternoon, any shift in cloud cover, thunderstorm outflow, or morning convection, and the timing of the station’s final high relative to the market’s settlement window, which closes at 12:00 UTC. If the early-day forecast consensus changes, the contract can still repricing quickly on Polygon as liquidity moves through the conditional-token market before Wunderground records the final daily high.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.