Highest temperature in Dallas on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 27 July 2026, Dallas Love Field Station will record a daily high temperature, and this market settles on which range that reading falls into. The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's current state rather than any meteorological certainty; Polymarket's pricing mechanism has simply not yet attracted traders willing to stake USDC on conditional tokens for this future date. Settlement depends on Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific station, making the resolution straightforward once the day passes.

Dallas summer highs typically cluster between 92°F and 98°F, with July being the hottest month of the year. Historical data from the National Weather Service shows that temperatures exceeding 100°F occur roughly once every five to seven years in Dallas during summer, whilst readings below 90°F are rare in late July. The 2023 summer saw Dallas experience 72 consecutive days above 90°F, establishing context for how extreme heat can persist through the month. These patterns suggest the most probable outcomes concentrate in the mid-to-upper 90s range, though the wide spread of possible outcomes explains why no single temperature band has attracted significant trading activity yet.

The National Weather Service issues extended forecasts approximately two weeks ahead, with meaningful refinement occurring five to seven days before the settlement date. Tropical systems tracking towards Texas, shifts in the jet stream, and high-pressure dome positioning all influence whether late July develops typical summer heat or anomalous conditions. Traders monitoring atmospheric patterns and seasonal climate outlooks from NOAA will gain information advantages as the date approaches, potentially shifting conditional token valuations substantially once more precise forecasts materialise.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.