Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract priced at **0% YES**, which implies traders are currently assigning negligible odds that Guangzhou Baiyun Airport’s recorded maximum on 1 August 2026 lands in the YES temperature band. The market settles on the **highest temperature observed that day** at the airport station, with positions held as **USDC**-denominated **conditional tokens** on **Polygon**, so the relevant question is not whether Guangzhou is hot in general, but whether the single-day peak hits the specific range before the settlement window closes.

That 0% reading sits against a climate backdrop where Guangzhou’s August highs are routinely in the low 30s Celsius. Multiple climate summaries put typical August highs around **33°C** and show monthly extremes that can reach the mid-to-high 30s, with one source listing a historical August high of **39°C** in 2004.[1][17][20] In practical terms, that means the distribution is centred well above mild temperatures, but still wide enough that the exact band chosen by the market matters a lot more than the broader “hot weather” narrative.

For traders, the main catalysts are the day’s actual weather conditions rather than scheduled events: cloud cover, rainfall, thunderstorm activity, and any late-afternoon heat spike can all shift the airport’s maximum. Guangzhou in August is typically hot, humid, and rainy, with substantial precipitation and frequent wet-day conditions, so a brief storm can cap the high while a clear, still afternoon can push it upwards.[17][20] The key resolution source is Wunderground’s daily history page for Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport, where the final settled high will be taken from the station’s recorded maximum for the day.[0]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.