Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou will experience peak summer heat on 15 August 2026, with the highest temperature recorded at Baiyun International Airport determining settlement. The market currently prices at 0% YES, indicating traders expect the daily maximum to fall outside whatever range this contract specifies—a stark positioning that reflects either extreme confidence in a cooler-than-normal day or uncertainty about the exact threshold being tested. On Polygon, USDC holders can stake conditional tokens reflecting their temperature forecast, with resolution tied to Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, a distinction that matters when automated feeds occasionally diverge.

Guangzhou's August climate shows consistent patterns: the city averages 32–34°C highs during mid-August, with extreme readings occasionally exceeding 37°C during heat waves. Historical data from the past decade reveals only scattered days above 38°C in this window, though the 2013 heatwave pushed readings to 39°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either pricing in a below-average day or treating the specified temperature band as implausibly high.

Catalysts shaping August 2026 conditions remain distant, but seasonal forecasting models typically become reliable 10–14 days ahead. El Niño or La Niña patterns active in mid-2026 will influence tropical Pacific circulation and thus South China heat transport. Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration seasonal outlooks released in July 2026 and any tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea, which can suppress temperatures through cloud cover and moisture advection.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 15? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.