Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou's weather on 17 August 2026 will determine which temperature band captures the daily maximum recorded at Baiyun International Airport Station. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% on Polygon, suggesting either technical settlement constraints or genuine uncertainty about which bracket will resolve YES. Traders are pricing conditional tokens denominated in USDC against outcomes that span plausible August highs for the region, with resolution hinging on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures.

Guangzhou experiences consistent peak temperatures during mid-August, with historical August averages clustering between 32–35°C. The city's subtropical monsoon climate produces minimal daily variance during this period; the 17th falls within the most thermally stable window of the summer season. Previous years show Baiyun station recordings rarely deviate more than 2–3°C from the seasonal mean, making extreme outliers—either unusually cool or exceptionally hot days—statistically infrequent without significant weather system intervention.

Tropical cyclone activity represents the primary catalyst affecting August temperatures in Guangzhou. The Western Pacific typhoon season peaks in August and September; any system tracking toward southern China would suppress daytime highs through cloud cover and precipitation. Conversely, a high-pressure ridge positioned over the region would reinforce typical heat patterns. Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts and tropical cyclone tracking from late July onwards, as these determine whether 17 August experiences standard seasonal conditions or anomalous thermal behaviour. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on the 17th, allowing only morning observations to influence final resolution.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 17? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.