Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract pinned at **0% YES** today, so on-chain prices imply the market is effectively treating an August heat spike at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport as outside the current base case. Settlement is tied to the highest temperature recorded at the airport station on 4 August 2026, with USDC collateral on Polygon and conditional tokens determining payout, so the key question for holders is not whether Guangzhou is hot in general, but whether the day’s official peak lands inside the contract’s temperature band. Guangzhou’s August climate is normally hot and humid, with forecast services putting typical daytime highs around 33–34°C and frequent rain, which can cap or delay the sort of afternoon maximum that matters for this market.[1][2][10][13]

Historical comparables lean towards a materially warmer outcome than the current crowd price suggests. Guangzhou’s August averages are near 91°F/33°C, but published August guides also show individual days reaching the mid-30s Celsius, including a 4 August historical high of 35.5°C in one compiled weather record.[11][13] That matters because a zero-priced contract usually reflects thin interest or an assumption that the resolution band is narrow, not an absence of heat risk. For users trading the market, the practical reference point is the airport station reading itself, not citywide averages, tourist guides, or “feels like” figures.[7][12]

The main catalysts are the day’s actual rainfall timing, cloud cover, and any late-morning or early-afternoon clearing that allows a sharper inland warm-up before convection builds. Forecasts for 4 August have pointed to showers and high humidity, with some services showing rain showers and temperatures around 33°C, while others have forecast around 32°C with a high chance of rain, which makes the intraday peak more sensitive to timing than to the daily mean.[2][12][17] Traders should watch for updates from the airport-adjacent station and any shift in thunderstorm coverage, since a wet morning can still produce a strong early peak if clouds break before the heaviest rain arrives.[7][19]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 4? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.