Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is whether Guangzhou’s highest temperature on 10 July 2026 will reach 36°C or higher, measured at the Baiyun International Airport Station. On Polymarket today, this contract trades at 0% YES, implying the crowd believes the threshold is virtually unattainable. Yet historical climatology for Guangzhou in July shows daily highs typically between 34°C and 37°C, with 36°C being a frequent peak rather than an outlier[9]. Average July highs sit around 33°C (91°F), but record extremes can climb to 39°C (102°F), especially during heatwaves[2][4]. China’s July 2023 was its hottest month on record since 1961, suggesting that extreme heat events are not merely theoretical[5].

Traders should monitor official heatwave announcements from the Guangdong Meteorological Bureau and real-time Wunderground data updates for the Baiyun station, as these directly determine settlement[7]. The settlement window ends 12:00 UTC on 10 July 2026, so any pre-noon temperature spike will be decisive. Recent forecasts from PredictWind indicate variable conditions for Guangzhou Shi in July 2026, including rainfall and wind shifts that could suppress peak temperatures[8]. Conditional tokens on Polygon, settled in USDC, mean liquidity is thin when probability is near zero, but a sudden heat advisory could trigger rapid repricing. The key dependency is whether the day remains dry and cloud-free, as heavy rain—like the 26°C readings seen in past heavy rain events—would likely keep temperatures below 36°C[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.