Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou’s official airport station is likely to post another very hot reading today, and Polymarket prices that directly: the leading bucket is **36°C** at **47%**, with **35°C** next at **28%**. On Polymarket, that exposure is bought with USDC and settled through conditional tokens on Polygon, so the contract is essentially a tradable forecast for the day’s recorded maximum rather than a comment on general weather sentiment.[1]

The current **0% YES** crowd-implied probability is far below the market’s own bucket pricing and should be read as a stale or mismatched headline figure rather than a literal forecast of impossible heat. For context, Guangzhou in late July is typically in its hottest stretch, with today’s live conditions already showing **91°F** and a **RealFeel® of 109°**, which supports the market leaning towards the mid-30s Celsius range rather than a cooler outcome.[2]

For traders, the key catalyst is not a formal announcement but the intraday temperature path at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport and how the final daily high is recorded on Wunderground’s history page before the settlement window closes. The important dependencies are the airport station reading, the UTC timing of the market’s cut-off, and any late-afternoon spike in heat, cloud break-up, or monsoonal rain suppression; those are the practical variables that can move the result bucket in the final hours.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.