Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket currently prices the likelihood of Guangzhou's peak temperature on 25 July 2026 falling into the highest range at 0%, reflecting either extreme confidence in cooler conditions or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. The settlement hinges on the single highest temperature reading recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station throughout that calendar day, measured in Celsius and sourced from Weather Underground's historical database. Traders holding USDC on Polygon will receive conditional tokens representing each temperature bracket, with payouts determined by which range ultimately contains the actual peak.

Guangzhou's July climate presents a narrow historical band. The city experiences peak summer heat in late July, with average daily highs around 33–34°C and extremes occasionally breaching 37–38°C. The 0% probability on the highest bracket suggests the crowd expects temperatures to remain within established seasonal norms rather than spike into record territory. However, anomalous heat events do occur; China's 2022 summer saw multiple cities exceed historical July averages by 2–3°C, and the South China region has experienced isolated days above 39°C in recent decades.

Traders should monitor tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during mid-to-late July 2026, as storm systems can either suppress temperatures through cloud cover or trigger extreme heat beforehand. Seasonal forecasts released by China's Meteorological Administration typically become available 10–14 days before month-end, offering data points for position adjustments. Real-time conditions in the week preceding 25 July will prove most decisive; sustained high-pressure systems over southern China correlate strongly with temperature extremes.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.