Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract at **0% YES** right now, so the market is effectively pricing in no chance that Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station prints a daily high in the settlement band that resolves to YES. The event is straightforward: the exchange rate is not the issue here, but the **highest temperature observed on 27 July 2026** at the specified station, measured in Celsius, with settlement determined from Wunderground’s daily history page for Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station and paid out through Polymarket’s **USDC**-denominated, **Polygon**-based conditional token structure.

For context, Guangzhou in July is usually hot, humid and rainfall-prone. Seasonal guides put typical July highs around **34°C** and describe Guangzhou as a subtropical monsoon climate with long, hot summers and abundant rain from April to September, while 10-day outlooks around this period show highs commonly ranging from **33°C to 37°C** with unsettled, wet conditions[2][3][1]. That matters because a low-priced contract often reflects the idea that the market is tied to a fairly narrow temperature range, and traders on Polymarket are effectively buying or selling conditional tokens against the exact station reading rather than a broad citywide forecast.

The main catalysts are operational rather than political: whether afternoon convection, cloud cover, or repeated showers suppress the day’s peak, and whether the airport station’s official observation on Wunderground records a brief heat spike before rain moves in. July in Guangzhou is typically very wet, with more than **29 rainy days** and over **217 mm** of rainfall expected in the month, which can cap highs even when the air remains oppressive[2]. For a trader, the key dependency is the intraday path to the station’s maximum temperature, not the morning reading; the market will only settle on the single highest Celsius value logged for the day at the listed airport station.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 27? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.