Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport on 7 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. On Polymarket today, this contract trades with a 0% implied probability for the "YES" outcome, suggesting the market expects the temperature to fall outside the specific range defined by the bet. This pricing reflects a stark divergence from historical reality, where July is consistently one of Guangzhou’s hottest months, with daily highs typically reaching 34°C to 39°C and rarely dropping below 29°C [1][4].

Historical data frames this current probability as an anomaly rather than a trend. In recent years, July temperatures in Guangzhou have averaged around 33°C, with peaks hitting 36°C to 39°C during the hottest periods [1][5]. Even in May 2026, which saw continuous sunny days, temperatures reached 36.3°C, marking it as the hottest May in history [6]. Given that July is usually hotter than May, a 0% probability for a high-temperature range appears inconsistent with the region’s established thermal patterns, where daily highs rarely fall below 85°F (29.4°C) [2].

Traders should monitor upcoming weather forecasts and local meteorological announcements for July 2026, as sudden shifts in cloud cover or rainfall could alter temperature outcomes. AccuWeather’s July 2026 forecast for Guangzhou already indicates daily highs ranging from 84°F to 99°F (28.9°C to 37.2°C), with an average high near 91°F (32.8°C) [3]. The settlement depends entirely on Wunderground’s recorded data for the Baiyun Airport station, so any discrepancies in sensor readings or data availability could impact the final resolution. Conditional tokens on the Polygon network will settle in USDC once the 2026-07-07T12:00:00Z window closes, making real-time forecast updates critical for position management.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 7? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.