Highest temperature in Helsinki on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Helsinki Vantaa Airport is expected to record its peak daily temperature on 13 July 2026, with the market currently pricing a 23°C outcome at 47% probability, while 24°C sits at 22% [1]. The crowd-implied probability for a YES outcome on any specific high-temperature threshold is 0%, reflecting the market’s focus on discrete Celsius ranges rather than a binary pass-fail condition. On Polymarket, traders use USDC on the Polygon network to buy conditional tokens representing these temperature brackets, with settlement locked to Wunderground’s official daily record for EFHK.

Historical July highs in Helsinki typically cluster between 20°C and 26°C, making 23°C a statistically plausible frontrunner rather than an outlier. Comparable summers in the 2020s saw similar mid-range peaks, supporting the market’s current weighting where 23°C dominates and 24°C trails as the next likely outcome [1]. This distribution aligns with regional climate norms, where extreme highs above 28°C are rare in early July.

Traders should monitor real-time weather feeds from Wunderground and Finnish Meteorological Institute updates as the day progresses, since settlement depends solely on the highest recorded temperature at EFHK by 12:00 UTC on 13 July. No external announcements or policy shifts affect this outcome; the only catalyst is the live temperature reading itself. With the settlement window closing shortly, liquidity may shift as the final hours approach, but the underlying data source remains fixed and automated.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.