Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket currently prices this Hong Kong heat contract at **0% YES**, so on-chain traders are treating a qualifying maximum temperature as effectively out of the money for now. That price sits on Polygon and settles through conditional tokens in **USDC**, with the outcome tied to the Hong Kong Observatory’s final “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)” for 1 August 2026, measured to one decimal place.

For context, Hong Kong’s early-August climate is normally hot enough that a high in the low 30s is routine rather than exceptional: the Observatory’s 1991–2020 normal for 1 August shows a mean maximum of **31.6°C**. Recent Augusts have also produced very warm daily peaks; the Observatory described August 2024 as exceptionally hot, with a mean daily maximum of **32.3°C**, and its monthly weather page records August 2025 as containing several hot spells. That matters because markets like this do not need a record-breaking day, only a final published maximum that lands in the chosen temperature band.

A trader should watch the Hong Kong Observatory’s daily extract timetable rather than headline forecasts alone, because the market cannot resolve until the final data are published on the climatological page. The main dependencies are whether the Observatory updates the relevant Daily Extract for 1 August 2026 and whether the day’s “Absolute Daily Max” is later revised in the final record; until then, the contract’s on-chain price is mainly a read on how likely the market thinks Hong Kong will exceed its usual August norm.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.