Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this contract at **0% YES** today, so the market is effectively assuming the Hong Kong Observatory will not log a qualifying peak temperature in the target range on 10 August. Because the market settles on the Observatory’s final “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)” in its Daily Extract, the decisive number is the official one-decimal reading for that date, not a citywide estimate or a station elsewhere in Hong Kong.[2][6]

That 0% print sits against a very hot recent baseline. Hong Kong recorded **36.9°C** at the Observatory on 9 August 2026, which the Observatory and multiple news outlets described as the city’s hottest reading since records began in 1884; the previous Observatory record was **36.6°C** in 2017.[1][8][14] August is already the city’s warmest month on climatological normals, with the Observatory’s 10 August daily normal maximum around **31.1°C**, so a high summer reading is routine even if an outright record is not.[6] For a Polymarket user holding USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens, the key question is whether the day finishes merely hot, or hot enough to land in the contract’s specified range once the Observatory finalises the extract.[2]

The main catalysts are the Observatory’s hourly updates, the day’s synoptic setup, and whether any tropical-weather influence keeps warm air over the territory. Recent reporting tied the extreme warmth to Typhoon Dolphin’s outer circulation and subsiding air, with some stations in Hong Kong reaching nearly **40°C**, so traders should watch for similar late changes in wind, cloud cover, and showers that can cap the daily maximum.[1][12][14] The market cannot resolve until the Observatory publishes the final data, so intraday forecasts matter less than the official post-event extract.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.