Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Hong Kong heat contract on USDC-settled conditional tokens on Polygon, and the crowd is currently marking **0% YES** for a positive outcome. In practical terms, that means traders are treating the specific temperature bands tied to the Hong Kong Observatory’s official daily maximum as effectively unpriced at the moment, even though the market only resolves once the Observatory publishes the final “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)” for 11 August in its Daily Extract.

For context, Hong Kong’s mid-August climate usually sits in the low- to mid-30s Celsius rather than the high-30s outliers that capture headlines. The Observatory’s 1991–2020 normals for 11 August show an average daily maximum around **31.1°C**, with typical values clustering well below record territory, while recent coverage has shown that exceptional heat can still push the city into the upper-30s when summer conditions intensify. The key reading for Polymarket users is that a 0% YES quote says more about the current market microstructure than about the weather itself: on-chain markets can stay thin until traders have a reason to reprice the bins.

The main catalysts are the Observatory’s hourly readings, the later publication of the Daily Extract, and any short-notice forecast changes from showers, cloud cover, or tropical influences that alter the day’s peak. Time and Date’s forecast for Hong Kong on 11 August points to showers early and mostly cloudy skies, with a projected high near the mid-30s Celsius, which matters only insofar as it shapes trader expectations before the official file is posted. Because settlement depends on the final Hong Kong Observatory record rather than an interim forecast, the live market can remain disconnected from the realised temperature until the data are published.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 11? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.