Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 12 August 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 0% YES, meaning traders are assigning negligible probability to any specific temperature range resolving. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, though final resolution depends on the Observatory publishing its Daily Extract data, which typically becomes available within days of the observation period.

Hong Kong's August temperatures are among the year's most predictable within narrow bands. Historical data shows absolute daily maxima in August cluster between 32°C and 35°C, with extreme outliers rare. The 12th holds no particular meteorological significance—it sits mid-month during the summer monsoon season when thermal patterns stabilise. The 0% pricing reflects the market's current state rather than any genuine uncertainty about whether a temperature will be recorded; it signals either minimal trading activity or that no range has yet attracted sufficient liquidity to establish a meaningful price.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone alerts issued in late July or early August, as these represent the primary catalysts for temperature deviation. The Observatory publishes extended outlooks roughly two weeks ahead, and any unusual atmospheric patterns—such as typhoon proximity or anomalous heat systems—would be flagged there. Settlement hinges entirely on the Observatory's official publication; no alternative data sources or methodologies apply.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.