Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 15 August 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's maximum temperature in degrees Celsius. The market currently prices all outcome ranges at 0% YES, reflecting settlement uncertainty rather than meteorological implausibility—the contract cannot resolve until the Observatory publishes its Daily Extract data, which typically occurs within days of the observation date but remains subject to administrative delays. Traders holding conditional tokens on Polygon will need to wait for that official release before USDC settlement occurs.

August is Hong Kong's hottest month climatologically, with daily maxima typically ranging between 31°C and 33°C, though extremes have reached 36°C. Historical data from the Observatory shows that temperatures above 35°C occur roughly once per decade in mid-August, whilst readings below 30°C are exceptionally rare. The 0% pricing across all ranges suggests the market has attracted minimal liquidity or early positioning, leaving substantial uncertainty about which temperature band will ultimately contain the settlement value.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's forecast updates as mid-August 2026 approaches, particularly any alerts regarding heat waves or tropical cyclone activity that could suppress temperatures. The Observatory publishes nine-day forecasts and updates them daily; significant deviations from seasonal norms typically emerge three to five days before the target date. Additionally, any typhoon system tracking towards the region in early-to-mid August could dramatically alter temperature trajectories, making real-time meteorological tracking essential for conditional token holders seeking to adjust positions before settlement.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.