Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 16 August 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's maximum temperature in degrees Celsius. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% probability, reflecting that settlement data has not yet been published and the date lies in the future. Once the Observatory publishes its "Absolute Daily Max" figure in the Daily Extract dataset, one of the available ranges will resolve to YES at 1 USDC per share, whilst all others settle to zero. Until that official release, conditional tokens remain unsettled on Polygon.

Hong Kong's August temperatures exhibit consistent patterns across decades of Observatory records. The territory's summer maximum typically ranges between 32–34°C during mid-August, with extreme heat occasionally pushing toward 35–36°C during particularly intense heat waves. Historical data shows that temperatures exceeding 37°C on this date are exceptionally rare, occurring perhaps once per decade. The 0% crowd probability reflects standard market mechanics rather than any expectation of an anomalous reading; traders await both the passage of time and subsequent data publication before meaningful price discovery occurs.

The Hong Kong Observatory publishes daily temperature extracts with a lag of several days following the observation date. Traders should monitor the Observatory's climate data portal after 20 August 2026 for the official maximum temperature figure. Regional weather patterns in early-to-mid August typically depend on monsoon positioning and tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific; any significant weather system affecting the region during the settlement window could shift outcomes materially from historical norms. The market cannot resolve until the Observatory's dataset is finalised and publicly available.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.