Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Hong Kong temperature contract as a fairly tight summer-range outcome, with **27°C** the current front-runner at **34%** and **28°C** close behind at **32%**.[1] On Polymarket’s usual USDC-on-Polygon setup, that means traders are effectively valuing the conditional tokens against a specific one-decimal Celsius reading from the Hong Kong Observatory, with the winner paying out $1 once the official daily extract is finalised.[1][14]

The 0% crowd price looks detached from the climatology of the city in early August. The Hong Kong Observatory’s August normals put the mean maximum on 2 August at **31.5°C**, while general August weather references describe highs commonly in the low 30s rather than the 20s.[6][4] Recent Hong Kong weather reporting also shows the city can still post very hot late-summer readings, with the Observatory noting 2023 as the hottest August on record and SCMP reporting 2023 as Hong Kong’s hottest summer ever.[2][11] For a trader, that makes the mid-to-high 20s market band worth reading as a live distribution around a hot, humid day rather than an assumption that the temperature will stay unusually cool.[1][6]

The key catalysts are official, not market-driven: the contract cannot resolve until the Hong Kong Observatory publishes the relevant **Daily Extract** and finalises the **“Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)”** for 2 August.[14] That means intraday forecasts, typhoon warnings, rain bands, and late-afternoon clearing all matter only insofar as they change the day’s eventual maximum before the observatory’s record is locked in.[14][3] On Polymarket, traders should watch for updates from the Observatory’s climatological pages and any weather-service guidance that could shift expectations on the maximum before settlement.[3][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.